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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest upset.

However the latest competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still