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Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and block by block. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously went for the progressive now. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it so then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. However overall, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.