UK Diplomats Cautioned Against Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released documents reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military intervention to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Considered Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.